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GMs who try to fix their teams through free agency do so out of desperation and/or wishful thinking.  It’s not a coincidence Tuesday’s biggest spenders were teams who finished under .500 in 2012.  Likewise, it’s unsurprising we didn’t hear of any splashy signings by the Giants, Packers, Patriots, Steelers or Ravens (aka – the 21st century’s most common post-season participants).

The Ravens and Steelers, however, were just reminded of the rub: typically stable, successful franchises will sometimes have to take a step back and accept the departure of key players to the league’s bottom feeders who’ll overpay in attempt to catch lightning in a bottle.  Both teams have now lost multiple big names.  No matter what happens between now and September, it’s highly likely neither will be as good as they were last season.

The young & talented Cincinnati Bengals, meantime, entered free agency with the most cap room in the league… but opted against throwing giant heaps of loot at guys like Mike Wallace (who was overpaid by the Dolphins on Tuesday) in favor of trying to re-sign their current players.  It’s a formula that’s worked more often than not for division rivals Baltimore & Pittsburgh, and – like I’ve been saying since December – will result in the 2013 AFC North crown for Mike Brown & Co.

Here’s one little nagging irony to mull over, though: the biggest short-term question for the Bengals is QB Andy Dalton, a solid but unspectacular game manager.  Is it possible the one piece that could keep them from a deep playoff run is Carson Palmer?

Which NFL quarterbacks throw a sexy deep ball? – by Black Tie. 

Quarterbacks that throw a sexy deep ball

Russell Wilson – The perfect combination of arm strength, lack of height and accuracy enables Wilson to throw high, on-target deep balls with a certain touch that would make NFL Films’ cameramen blush.

Aaron Rodgers – Perhaps one of the sexiest throws in the NFL’s modern era

Drew Brees – Russell Wilson’s favorite current NFL quarterback and thrower of this epic bomb.

Quarterbacks that throw great bombs that aren’t quite sexy

Joe Flacco – The QB people ask me “does he throw a #SexyDeepBall?” most about. Flacco’s deep balls are thrown with high-end velocity leaving little time for the human eye to appreciate the aerial display. Yup, this is the rare case where arm strength can be a weakness.

Robert Griffin III – Didn’t make the #SexyDeepBall cut due to the fact that a good amount of his deep passes last season were set up by the read-option offense. So unlike Russell Wilson, RG3 usually had a ton of time when launching deep, ducking his degree of difficulty down a tad.

Matthew Stafford – Top-three arm strength in the NFL (with Jay Cutler and Joe Flacco), but Calvin Johnson’s physical presence and leaping ability steal the show on the deep connections in Detroit. #AllHailMegatron

Quarterbacks that DON’T throw a sexy deep ball

Peyton Manning – All brains, no looks.

Colin Kaepernick – Thrower of one the league’s most lethal FAST balls, Kaepernick’s deep attempts usually have too flat a trajectory to score high on the sexy scale.

 

I’m sitting in the NFL Media News Room as I type this, a few days removed from one of the greatest weekends in NFL history.  This weekend, two more games will determine the participants in America’s biggest sporting event.  Right now, though, there’s not a whole lot of talk about either.  We’re too busy talking about bicycling and fake people with leukaemia.  In broader terms, of course, we’re really talking about lying.  Ironic, then, we’re not talking about what might be the sports week’s most damaging lie: the one told by the new head coach of the Philadelphia Eagles.

We can, will, and already have speculated plenty on the truth behind the Hawaiian-born Irish linebacker and the Texas-bred biker with the artificially strong appendages.  Maybe Manti Te’o is telling the truth.  Maybe he’s the victim of an elaborate, mean-spirited hoax.  If that’s the case, though, he’s wilfully defining himself as a very large man with the emotional and intellectual capacity of an 11-year-old boy.  Maybe Te’o knew what he was doing, orchestrating the macabre story for PR purposes, or maybe he wanted to cover up something else about his personal life.  Whatever the case, the integrity of Notre Dame is ultimately more likely to suffer than Te’o’s professional football career.  If you doubt that, I refer you to Ray Lewis, Michael Vick, et al.  As long as your physical skills allow it, we will allow – even embrace – your triumphant comeback.  We just want something in return, like a championship or two.  Quid pro quo.

Which brings me to Lance Armstrong, the ex-American hero who duped a nation that loves winning more than it cares who’s actually doing the winning.  What we don’t like, however, is feeling like suckers.  It’s not the PEDs we care about, it’s the dishonesty.  We hate Bonds, A-Rod, Sosa and McGwire, but don’t bat an eye at Jason Giambi or Andy Pettitte.  Why?  ‘Cause the latter two fessed up.  And now, so too has Armstrong.  Unfortunately for him, he waited too long.  Absolution is no longer an option.  He’s too old for a comeback.  Kobe Bryant was a pariah after his confession.  Now he’s in roughly 50% of the ads you see when watching a basketball game.  Why?  Because his age and talent (and to a lesser degree, his perpetually deferential teammates) kept him around long enough for a title or three.  Tiger Woods became America’s pariah not for betraying his marital vows, but because he deceived us.   Barely three years later, Tiger is on the road to redemption, but he’ll still need to win a major to get all the way back.  It’s no coincidence we make jokes about JaMarcus Russell but celebrate Ray Lewis.  Ray was good.  JaMarcus… was not.

On the bright side, at least Russell made millions, unlike countless other college football players, whose lives were manipulated to some degree by full-grown adults.  And that’s what’s missing from the giddy coverage of this week’s apocalyptically big (pseudo-) sports stories.

Chip Kelly left?!?! He was at my house 2 days ago 😥

—
Nics ✌ (@NicoFalah) January 16, 2013

A couple days before Chip Kelly sat in front of a microphone as the Eagles new head coach, he sat in high school kids’ homes and promised their parents he’d turn them into responsible adults.  He told them they’d be well taken care of in Eugene, Oregon, and – if things broke just right – they might one day make it in the NFL.  It’s probably the same speech he gave last year’s recruits, the ones who are now living an uncertain future in the Pacific Northwest instead of living… who knows where?  Southern California?  Florida? We’ll never know if another destination could’ve improved one of those kids’ chances of playing professional football… or finding a different major that was his true calling… or meeting a (preferably real) woman he might one day have married.

What’s that?  You think it’s a reach to conflate Kelly’s lie with those of Armstrong and Te’o?  Well, this isn’t just about Chip Kelly.  It happens every year around this time, all over the country.  The football season ends, the dominoes start falling.  Doug Marrone may be the most popular guy in Buffalo these days – matter of fact, he’s probably still pretty popular among Syracuse alums happy with their rebuilt program – but I’m certain there are Orange players who committed to the school because of Marrone who aren’t as thrilled.  Pete Carroll jumped off USC’s sinking ship and is now a civic hero in Seattle (even more so if he’d just taken the easy field goal in the second quarter last week), but let’s not forget the Trojans players he left behind to navigate the toxic waters by themselves.

[As a sidenote, let’s also be sure to hold up Matt Barkley as a cautionary tale the next time a kid projected to make millions is suckered into returning for the glory of the school.  If their coaches can take the big-money pro jobs - which they ironically are only offered thanks to success of their players - then said players should, too.

Not to diminish the potentially sinister deeds of Armstrong and Te’o, but the damage they’ve done is at best self-inflicted and at worst compartmentalized to a relative other few.  Yes, Notre Dame could suffer, but that’d mean they were complicit in the cover-up.  That, in turn, could negatively impact the players on the team, but again, it’s isolated to that program.  Armstrong ruined lives with his civil suits, but at least his lies led to a foundation that’s raised about half-a-billion dollars to fight cancer.  Conversely, the perennial cancer of coaches using 18-to-22-year-olds to improve their professional standing has no high-profile advocate fighting to cure it.

—

While I’m at it, let’s discuss the portion of the media that delights in hypocritically throwing stones at the likes of Te’o and Armstrong from their perch high atop Mount Pious.  I’m not talking about reporters like Jay Glazer, Jason LaCanfora, Bert Breer, Jeff Darlington, Adam Schefter and Chris Mortensen.  They compete to break the big story.  Whoever wins that race doesn’t matter much to us fans as long as we get the story.

More damaging, however, is the emerging race among “opinion guys” – those talking heads tasked with reacting to the stories their aforementioned peers just broke.  The game has now shifted from trying to make sense of the issues to saying the most outrageous, incendiary thing possible regardless of the veracity behind it.  And that’s a dangerous prospect.

The ethics of being a phony in exchange for attention aren’t exactly the issue here.  Rather, it’s the double standard of the talking heads ripping other people for being disingenuous.  Those guys were bashing Armstrong pretty good this week, but just as players use PEDs to improve their play, isn’t making up opinions in the name of ratings a form of artificiality?  What’s more, it creates – in fact, almost requires – other talking heads to rationalize doing the same thing.

Here’s the danger: every time Skip Bayless says something baseless about a player but gets attention for it, every time Colin Cowherd uses thinly-veiled racism as a ratings’ grab, it encourages guys like Rob Parker to say dumb things about guys like Robert Griffin III.  Parker lost his job for calling RGIII a “cornball brother,” making himself the victim in that case… but in a larger sense, why should Griffin be subjected to such nonsense at all?  Why target John Wall’s upbringing to speculate about what kind of leader he is?  “Issues” like these were conjured out of thin air… and for what, ratings?  Now that’s sinister.

I’d be remiss if I didn’t point out the site on which you’re reading these words engages in a form of what I just described when they devote time and resources to covering the Rex/Tebow/Sanchise melodrama over more germane football stories, but at least there aren’t any victims (besides Jets fans whose self-esteem dips with each bit of news about their team).  It’s the difference between a poke and a punch.

Meantime, baseball writers continue to victimize players of the Steroid Era.  Remember, these writers knew – or at least suspected – players were using PEDs are now punishing the best of those players by denying them entry into the sport’s hall of fame.  Pious?  Absolutely.  Destructive to the sport?  Probably… at least to Cooperstown.  Sorry, there’s just no point to an institution that presents itself as a home for baseball’s best when it doesn’t include the hit king, the homerun king or the best pitcher of the last half century (outside of serving as a shrine for the self-righteous).  However, the writers themselves – who said nothing at the time – get off scot-free.  Why? ‘Cause they’re the judge and jury.

So go ahead, take your shots at Te’o and Armstrong.  I’ve certainly cracked wise at their expense.  Just remember: there might be other bad guys out there, even if the media is too busy making up other stories to care.  Now if you’ll excuse me, I think I’ll try to scare up a conversation about Colin Kaepernick in the dome or Flacco versus the Pats D.  You know, football.  Those are the kinds of conversations I prefer.  No lie.

 

Chargers at Broncos

Peyton Manning:

307 pass YPG, 10 TD, 0 INT at home this season

290+ pass yards in 6 straight games

16 total TD, 19 turnovers in 8 career games vs Chargers (only AFC team he has negative ratio vs)

Willis McGahee

4 fumbles lost this season (most among RB)

3 fumbles lost in last 5 games

Ryan Mathews

1 TD, 2 fumbles lost this season

1 TD on 138 offensive touches this season

120+ rush yards in 3 of 4 career meetings vs Broncos

Malcom Floyd

65+ rec yards once in 9 career games vs Broncos

Chargers have passed for 205 yards or less in 3 straight meetings in Denver

Philip Rivers

5-1 in his career in Denver

Broncos have allowed fewer than 300 pass yards in 11 straight games

Packers at Lions

Green Bay has won 20 of the last 23 meetings

Packers have passed for 300+ yards in 5 of last 6 games in Detroit

James Starks

0 TD in last 15 games

Lions have allowed 1 rush TD in last 6 meetings vs Packers

Packers Defense

2+ sacks in 6 straight games

2+ takeaways in 9 straight games vs Lions

17 takeaways in last 5 games vs Lions

1+ takeaway in 5 straight games

Lions have scored 15 points or less in last 3 meetings in Detroit

Matthew Stafford passed for a franchise-record 520 yards and tied team record with 5 TD in last meeting vs Green Bay (Week 17, 2011)

Calvin Johnson had career-high 244 yards (11 rec, TD) in that game

In 9 career meetings vs Green Bay, Johnson has 10 TDs

Stafford has passed for 285+ yards in 3 straight games

Eagles at Redskins

Eagles have allowed 2 rush TD to RB this season (T-2^nd fewest in NFL)

Eagles are only team to not allow 100-yard rusher this season

Eagles have allowed 100+ rush yards in 5 straight games

Jeremy Maclin has 17 rec, 285 yards, TD in last 3 meetings vs Redskins

DeSean Jackson has 4 TD in last 6 meetings vs Redskins

RGIII

3 INT this season (t-fewest among starting QBs)

540 rush yards, 6 TD this season (most among QBs)

Eagles DEF: 1 INT in last 5 games

Eagles DEF: 7 INT in last 2 games in Washington

Bengals at Chiefs

AJ Green has a TD catch in 8 straight games

Bengals D

8 takeaways in last 3 games

Chiefs: 30 giveaways this season (most in NFL)

The Chiefs average 149 rush YPG this season, the most in the AFC

Bucs at Panthers

Bucs have scored 28+ points in franchise-record 5 straight games

Buccaneers have allowed:

12 pass TD in last 4 games

13 passes of 25+ yards in last 4 games

2978 pass yards this season (most in NFL)

Josh Freeman

285 pass YPG, 10 TD, 0 INT in last 4 games

7 total TD, 6 INT in 5 career meetings vs Panthers

Doug Martin 7 TD in last 4 games

Bucs Defense 8 takeaways in last 3 games

1+ sack in 8 straight games vs Panthers

25 takeaways in last 13 meetings with Panthers

Panthers have scored 14 points or less in 4 straight home games

Cam Newton

5 pass TD, 4 rush TD in 3 career meetings with Buccaneers

8 total TD, 0 turnovers in 2 meetings vs Bucs in 2011

Steve Smith

2 TD in last 19 home games

Buccaneers have allowed 42 rec of 20+ yards this season (2^nd most in NFL)

1 TD in last 7 meetings vs Buccaneers

DeAngelo Williams:

9 TD in last 9 games vs Buccaneers

Jonathan Stewart:

5 TD in last 6 games vs Buccaneers

Ravens at Steelers

Baltimore has won 11 straight games vs the AFC North

Steelers have allowed fewer than 180 pass yards in 4 straight games

Heath Miller:

0 TD in 9 straight games vs Ravens

Fewer than 50 rec yards in 3 straight games

Ravens have allowed 1 rec TD to TE this season

Byron Leftwich

Has not started since Week 3, 2009 as a Buc

Jaguars at Texans

In 4 road games this season, Blaine Gabbert has 5 TD and 0 INT

Houston is the only team to not allow a rush TD this season

Arian Foster has scored a TD in 11 straight and 17 of the last 18 games

Andre Johnson

0 TD in last 6 games

100+ rec yards once in last 9 meetings with Jaguars

Browns at Cowboys

Browns have scored 15 points or less in 3 straight games

Trent Richardson: 6 TD in last 8 games

Cowboys DEF

1+ sack in 12 straight games

1+ takeaway in 17 straight home games

6 takeaways in last 4 games

Romo

372 pass YPG, 3 total TD, 9 INT in last 2 home games

26 pass attempts, 209 yards Week 10 vs Eagles (season lows)

0 turnovers in 2 straight games

13 INT this season (most in NFL)

Browns DEF: 0 INT in last 3 games

144 pass attempts in 3 home starts this season

Romo’s been strong in November:

20-3 record

272 pass YPG, 15 TD, 2 INT in last 7 November games

0 INT in 6 of last 7 November games

34 TD in 13 career home November starts

Felix Jones has 2 TD in his last 16 home games

Cardinals at Falcons

Matt Ryan passed for career-high 411 yards last week vs Saints

Roddy White has 7 TDs in his last 8 home games

Cardinals have allowed 110+ rush yards in 5 straight games

Colts at Patriots

Andrew Luck

3 pass TD, 4 rush TD in last 4 games

Patriots have allowed 325+ pass yards in 3 straight home games

Patriots have allowed 47 completions of 20+ yards this season (most in NFL)

New England averages an NFL-best 33.2 points and 430.3 yards per game this season

Jets at Rams

The Rams have won 7 of the last 8 meetings

Steven Jackson

3 TD in last 18 games

1 TD in last 9 home games

100+ rush yards for first time in 10 last games

Jets have allowed 130+ rush yards in 3 straight road games

Sam Bradford

Multi-pass TD twice in last 12 home games

6 pass TD in last 7 games

Rams Defense

20 sacks in last 5 games

0 takeaways in last 4 games

Jets: 7 giveaways in last 3 games

Jets have allowed 11 sacks in last 3 games

Saints at Raiders

Drew Brees:

6-0 in last 6 starts vs Raiders with 13 TD, 0 INT 20+ completions in 45 straight games, the longest streak in NFL history

Carson Palmer

106 pass attempts, 782 yards in last 2 games

Averaging 360.7 pass YPG in last 3 home games vs NFC

Marcel Reece’s 328 rec yards are 2^nd most in NFL by RB (Spiller)

Saints have allowed 10 pass TD in last 3 road games

Saints have allowed 16 pass TD in last 6 games

Bears at 49ers

The 49ershave committed 2+ turnovers once in last 15 home games

Michael Crabtree has 4 TD in 5 career MNF games

Frank Gore has 4 Rush TD in 4 career home MNF Games

Bears have allowed 115+ rush yards in 3 straight games

Bears have allowed 7 pass TD this season (fewest in NFL)

Bears have not allowed rush TD to QB this season

All season long, we’re sharing some key numbers provided by NFL.com stats guy/Philly Flyers wonk Bill Sudell to help get you ready for the weekend’s action.  No prejudice, no opinion… just the stats, ma’am.  With no further ado, here ya go for Week Ten…

Raiders at Ravens

Baltimore has won 14 straight regular season home games, the longest active streak in the NFL

Ray Rice averages 6.1 yards per carry in his career vs Oaklnd (22 rush, 134 yards)

Ravens have allowed 1 pass TD or less in 12 of last 13 home games

Carson Palmer attempted a career-high 61 passes last week vs Tampa Bay

Broncos at Panthers

John Fox returns to Carolina where he coached for 9 seasons (2002-10)

Peyton Manning (419) needs 2 pass TD to overtake Dan Marino for second most in NFL history.

Manning has 3 pass TD in 5 straight games

Eric Decker has caught a TD pass in 5 straight games

Broncos defense has 1+ sack in 25 straight games

Steve Smith has 2 TD in his last 18 home games

Jonathan Stewart has 2 rush TD in his last 15 games

Giants at Bengals

Eli Manning needs 2 pass TD to tie Phil Simms (199) for most in Giants history.

Manning has 0 TD and fewer than 200 pass yards in back-to-back games

Victor Cruz has 6 rec TD in his last 6 games

Hakeem Nicks has 80+ rec yards once in his last 9 games

A.J. Green has a TD catch in 7 straight games

Titans at Dolphins

Since Week 6, Chris Johnson leads the AFC with 526 rush yards

Nate Washington has a TD catch in 3 of his 4 career meetings vs Dolphins

Ryan Tannehill has 0 INT in his last 4 games

Reggie Bush hasFewer than 75 scrimmage yards in 6 straight games

Bills at Patriots

The Patriots have won 22 of the last 24 meetings against the Bills

New England has 19 takeaways in its last 4 games vs Buffalo

Ryan Fitzpatrick has 300+ yards in 3 straight meetings vs Patriots

Buffalo has allowed 12 rush TD this season (most in NFL)

The Patriots lead the NFL in PPG (32.8) and YPG (440.8)

Tom Brady is 19-2 in his career vs Buffalo with 49 TD (most vs any team) and 3+ pass TD in 5 straight against them

Brady has thrown a TD in 40 straight games, the 3^rd longest streak in NFL history

Rob Gronkowski has 8 TD in 5 career games vs Buffalo

Lions at Vikings

Calvin Johnson has 85+ rec yards once in 10 career meetings vs Vikings

Johnson has yet to catch a TD pass from Matt Stafford this season (Lone TD was from Shaun Hill)

The Lions have 2 rush TD in their last 12 meetings vs Vikings…However, Minnesota has allowed 125+ rush yards and a TD in their last 4 games this season

Adrian Peterson has 120+ rush yards in 3 straight games. AP has 5 rush TD in his last 3 home meetings against Detroit

Christian Ponder has fewer than 65 pass yards in 2 of the last 3 games

Chargers at Buccaneers

San Diego is 8-1 all-time against Tampa Bay, including 5-0 in Florida

Malcom Floyd has 2 TD in 19 career games against the NFC

The Bucs have scored 28+ points in a team-record 4 straight games

Josh Freeman has 314 pass YPG, 11 TD, 1 INT in his last 4 games

Doug Martin has486 scrimmage yards, 6 total TD in last 2 games

Cowboys at Eagles

Tony Romo is 19-3 in his career in November with 52 TD and 14 INT Jason Witten has 1 TD in his last 14 games

DeMarcus Ware has 9 sacks in his last 3 games against the Eagles, including 7 in the last 2 meetings in Philly

LeSean McCoy has 17 TD in his last 14 home games

DeSean Jackson has 1 TD in 7 career games against Dallas

Falcons at Saints

Roddy White has 100+ rec yards in 4 of his last 5 visits to New Orleans

Julio Jones has 5 TD in 4 road games this season

Drew Brees is 10-2 in his Saints career vs Atlanta. His consecutive games with a TD pass is now at 51 straight games

Jets at Seahawks

Russell Wilson has 187 pass YPG, 9 TD, 0 INT at home this season Marshawn Lynch has 100+ rush yards in 3 straight games

Last week against Minnesota, Seattle allowed a franchise-worst 9.0 yards per carry

Texans at Bears

Arian Foster has scored a TD in 10 straight and 16 of the last 17 games

Since 2010, Arian Foster leads the NFL in TD (41), scrimmage YPG (132.6) and rush YPG (97.6)

Andre Johnson has 2 TD in his last 13 games

Matt Schaub has 1 INT or less in 19 straight road games

Houston is the only NFL team to not allow a rush TD this season

In the last 6 games, the Bears defense has scored 7 TD and allowed 6

Jay Cutler has fewer than 200 pass yards in 3 straight home games

Chiefs at Steelers

The KC Royals have won 2 games since the Chiefs last victory

Kansas City has yet to lead during regulation time this season

The Chiefs 29 giveaways this season are 10 more than any other team

Kansas City has allowed 100+ rush yards in 5 straight games

The Steelers have won 14 straight home MNF games

In their last 10 home MNF games, the Steelers defense has 38 tacks and 24 takeaways

I have no idea if Obama or Romney will be living in the White House come next February. I do, however, know Rick Santorum, Herman Cain & Michelle Bachmann won’t be.

Same goes with the race for the Lombardi Trophy. I’m not sure which two teams will be playing in the Superdome on Feb. 3, but,  just over six weeks into the NFL’s primary season, I can say with a fair amount of certainty who won’t.

Just as I didn’t need to watch “Meet The Press” to know Tim Pawlenty had no chance of winning the Republican nomination, I don’t need help determining teams like the Browns, Panthers and Bucs are already finished. What’s more, there are all plenty of teams out there who — while compelling on some level — clearly don’t have the makeup to wind up at the top of the heap. In other words, there a lot of Ron Pauls out there.

While Democrats and Republicans alike lament the dwindling middle class, the National Football League’s middle class is positively thriving.

I know there are some nice stories this season, see: Ponder & the Vikes, Luck & the Colts, RGIII & the ‘Skins, Tannehill (aka RT1, as he’s been tabbed by Dave Dameshek regular Handsome Hank) & the Fins, the three NFC West teams not named ‘the Niners’ — but you don’t think any of them can actually win it all, do you?

Arizona, Dallas, New Orleans, Buffalo, Tennessee, Denver, San Diego & Oakland may or may not be good enough to deliver a season that ends with a wildcard or divisional-round playoff loss, but like Rick Santorum in a general election, none is good enough to take the whole thing.

The Jets, Detroit & KC are pro football’s Rick Perry, spiraling down in spectacular fashion for the amusement of the nation. And if Mike Vick and Tony Romo can’t figure out how to stop giving the ball to the other team, we can add their teams here, too.

The Bears? Yeah, they’re good… but Jay Cutler can’t go ten minutes without either moping in solitude or fighting with his linemen, his coordinator, or anyone else who dares come within ten yards of him (which I guess makes him football’s answer to Newt Gingrich… as do the multiple chins).

Then there are the Packers. Like John Kerry back in ’04, they are a respected candidate with an impressive body of work. But if their dreams of a top seed in the NFC playoffs weren’t swiftboated by a bad call in Seattle a couple Mondays back, their awful o-line and woeful defense is undermining the still-stellar play of Aaron Rodgers. Same goes for Ben Roethlisberger, whose place in the standings is suffering due to his banged-up running (& catching & blocking & tackling) mates.

The Giants will be a factor as long as Eli and that d-line are around, but a second straight term as King of the NFL is far more rare than a second term as President of the United States.

The Bengals have that nifty sophomore hookup between Dalton and Green, plus feature an underrated pass rush, but like a candidate with strong foreign policy credentials but no grasp of economy, Cincy’s lack of a running game is a problem that can’t be overcome.

The Falcons look like the real deal and — thanks to the lousy competition in the NFC South — should get at worst No. 2 seed. However, we still don’t know if Matt Ryan can raise his game in January, and we don’t know if the ATL D can stop the opposing QB from raising his.

As far as I can tell, the list of true contenders is very short. Here’s who I’ve got: Houston, New England, Baltimore, San Francisco, and… that’s it. Whether they know it or not, everyone else is already playing for draft position.

I’m Dave Dameshek, and I approve this message.

–

A few more thoughts:

» Cam Newton had the greatest rookie season in NFL history.  But after that season plus one month of this season, Newton’s losing ground to his fellow 2011 draftees: I doubt Cincy would give up Andy Dalton for him.  Ditto Minnesota and Christian Ponder. He’s got a lower passer rating than Jake Locker. He’s got one more rushing touchdown than Niners backup Colin Kaepernick. He’s played more than Ryan Mallett, but Mallett gets to stare at the dreamy Tom Brady in practice. On the bright side, Cam’s better than Blaine Gabbert, who’s very much like Samson in that both men were awful after getting their long hair cut. Then again, at least Samson was mighty before the haircut.

» Don’t know about you, but I’m thoroughly looking forward to November, when Greg McElroy takes over as the Jets’ starting QB.  Over/under on cutaways to Tebow & Sanchez on the sidelines: 492

» The Steelers are doomed by injury and defensive ineptitude, but Ben Roethlisberger is playing as well as any QB in the league.

» Steve Spurrier deserves some long overdue credit. Yes, his time with the Redskins was silly, but it’s been bookended by two terrific stops in the SEC. Winning a title at Florida was impressive, but building a contender in South Carolina is an even bigger feather in his cap. That said, I can’t see his Gamecocks beating LSU on Saturday.

» Gold Star of David Pick of the Week: Patriots over Seahawks, 30-10. Programming note: Adam Rank & I are 23-7 with our weekly ‘Shek to the Future’ picks. I encourage — nay, demand — you watch our Week Six picks here.

» Game That Will Prove You REALLY, REALLY Love Pro Football If You Can Sit Through The Whole Thing of the Week: KC at Tampa

» Note from the Uniform Monitor: I’m all for the NFL’s support of the fight against breast cancer, but all that pink is Technicolor eyesore. They couldn’t have gone with gray?

» Tweet of the Week (courtesy the now-deleted Twitter account of Ohio St. QB Cardale Jones): “Why should we have to go to classes if we came here to play FOOTBALL, we ain’t come here to play SCHOOL classes are POINTLESS”. Please go to class, Cardale. At least until you learn the meaning of irony.

All season long, we’re sharing some key numbers provided by NFL.com stats guy/Philly Flyers wonk Bill Sudell to help get you ready for the weekend’s action.  No prejudice, no opinion… just the stats, ma’am.  With no further ado, here ya go for Week Five…

BUFFALO at SF

Ryan Fitzpatrick leads the NFL with 12 pass TD but is tied for 2^nd with 7 interceptions. Fitzpatrick has thrown 3+ INT 4 times in last 7 games

The 49ers defense has 22 INT in its last 11 home games

The 49ers have allowed 2 total pass TD in last 4 home games

San Francisco has not allowed a rushing TD in its last 11 home games

Alex Smith:

17-4 in last 21 starts

226 pass yards or less in 8 straight games.

In Smith’s last 12 home games, he has 214 pass YPG, 21 TD, 3 INT

The Bills have allowed 20 pass TD in last 7 road games

Randy Moss has 12 TD in 10 career meetings vs Bills

BALTIMORE at KC

Ray Rice has 90+ scrimmage yards in each game this season

Baltimore has allowed 1 pass TD or less in 22 straight games

Kansas City has won 6 straight October games

Jamaal Charles is averaging an NFL-best 128 scrimmage YPG this season

Dwayne Bowe has been targeted 43 times in the last 3 games

All 3 of Bowe’s touchdowns this season have come in the 4^th quarter

CHICAGO at JAX

The Bears defense:

14 takeaways this season (most in NFL)

62 points allowed this season (3^rd fewest in NFL)

15 sacks this season (t-3^rd in NFL)

Jaguars have scored 23 points or less in 7 straight games

Jacksonville is 24-9 (.747) all-time at home vs NFC

MIAMI at CINCY

Brian Hartline leads the NFL with 455 receiving yards. In 2011, he had 549 rec yards all season

Miami has allowed 300+ pass yards in last 3 games

BenJarvus Green-Ellis:

26 rush TD in last 34 games

3 fumbles,2 lost in last 2 games (0 fumbles in first 589 career touches)

Dolphins have allowed 56.8 rush YPG this season (fewest in NFL)

Dolphins have allowed 2.36 yards per carry this season (fewest in NFL)

CLEVELAND at NY GIANTS 

Eli Manning:

7 straight wins vs AFC, including playoffs

23 straight games with 200+ pass yards, the 2^nd longest streak in NFL history

Victor Cruz:

32 rec this season (most in NFL)

49 targets this season (t-most in NFL)

WR have been targeted 109 times vs Browns this season (2^nd most in NFL)

Browns have allowed 7 rec TD to WR this season (t-most in NFL)

PHILLY at PITTSBURGH

Michael Vick:

14-3 in last 17 starts vs AFC

Steelers are 9-1 at home vs NFC under Mike Tomlin

Ben Roethlisberger:

301 pass YPG, 8 TD, INT this season

Fewer than 185 pass yards in both career meetings vs Eagles

Eagles have allowed 4^th fewest fantasy points to QB this season

Eagles have allowed 7 pass TD in last 8 road games

Eagles have allowed fewer than 265 pass yards in 10 straight road games

Eagles have allowed fewer than 20 completions in 6 of last 7 road games

TENNESSEE at MINNY

Christian Ponder is the only starting QB yet to throw an INT (123 attempts)

In 20 career games vs AFC, Adrian Peterson has 22 touchdowns;

Peterson has 10 rush TD in last 8 home games overall

The Titans and Rams are the only teams without a rushing TD this season

Chris Johnson has 0 TD in last 8 games and 4 TD in last 20 games

Titans Defense

133 points allowed this season (most in NFL)

2 takeaways this season (t-fewest in NFL)

SEATTLE at CAROLINA 

Cam Newton has 17 rush TD in 20 career games; The Seahawks have allowed 15 rush yards to QB this season (4^th fewest in NFL)

Marshawn Lynch has 15 touchdowns in his last 16 games

DENVER at NEW ENGLAND 

Peyton Manning has thrown 23 career INT vs the Patriots (most vs any team)

New England has allowed 7 pass TD in last 2 game

Tom Brady:

363 pass yards, 6 TD, INT in last meeting vs Broncos (2011 Div playoffs)

1+ TD Pass in 35 straight games

300+ pass yards in 3 straight home games

Broncos have allowed fewer than 300 pass yards in 6 straight games

Wes Welker has gone 7 straight games without a touchdown

Stevan Ridley

80+ scrimmage yards in 4 of last 5 games

Broncos have allowed 1 total rush TD in last 4 games

The Broncos have allowed 18 runs of 10+ yards in last 4 road games

ATLANTA at DC 

Julio Jones has 8 touchdowns in 9 career road games.

The Redskins have allowed 7 rec TD to wide receivers this season, the most in the NFL

Alfred Morris leads the Redskins with 82 rush attempts this season. The next closest running back on the roster has 7 carries

SD at NO 

Drew Brees:

Pass TD in 47 straight games, tied for the longest streak in NFL history with Johnny Unitas

1350 pass yards this season (most in NFL)

3+ pass TD in 6 of last 7 games

New Orleans has allowed 187 rush YPG this season, the most in the NFL

Opponents run the ball 52.9% of time vs Saints this season, the most in NFL

HOUSTON at NY JETS 

The Jets are 5-0 all-time against the Texans, including 2-0 under Rex Ryan

In his last 8 starts, Matt Schaub is 8-0 with 12 pass TD and 2 INT.

Andre Johnson has 5 receiving TD in 4 career MNF games

The Jets have allowed fewer than 200 pass yards, 0 pass TD in last 2 games

Houston ahs allowed 56 points this season, the fewest in the NFL

Mark Sanchez’s 49.2 completion pct is the worst among starting QBs this season